[tex-live] pretest update-tlmgr-latest out of sync?

[Maxwell, Adam R]

I'm using pretest TL 2009, installed from one of last month's MacTeX
packages.  I've been updating it regularly via tlmgr to test TeX Live
Utility, and everything was up to date as of this morning (using the Utah
mirror).

If I run update-tlmgr-latest.sh from http://texlive.guiling.fr/, I end up
with the following:

$ tlmgr --version
tlmgr revision 14543 (2009-08-05 18:36:29 +0200)
tlmgr using installation: /usr/local/texlive/2009
TeX Live (http://tug.org/texlive) version 2009-dev

$ tlmgr show texlive.infra
Package:    texlive.infra
[...]
Installed:  Yes
Revision:   14543
Collection: collection-basic

Well and good, but when I then run update --list against the same mirror,
the installed texlive.infra version is newer than what's on the mirror:

$ tlmgr --location=http://texlive.guiling.fr update --list
tlmgr: installation location http://texlive.guiling.fr
Cannot save remote TeX Live database to
/usr/local/texlive/2009/tlpkg/texlive.tlpdb.e808b2ae228f9521ce26b54ab37d6e4d
: Permission denied
texlive.infra: local revision (14543) is newer than revision in
http://texlive.guiling.fr (14511), not updating.

A TeX Live Utility user reported this problem today, but I haven't seen it
since the mirror I use (Utah) was telling me that texlive.infra r14511 is
up-to-date.  I have the same problem after running update-tlmgr-latest.sh
from the Utah mirror, also, so evidently its database is stale as well?

As an aside, why is update --list trying to save anything to /usr/local?
That is likely going to throw off MacTeX users.

thanks,
adam