--tpm_dir=$tm/texmf-dist/tpm
Try changing this to --tpm_dir=$tm/texmf/tpm, and ...
--patterns=auto
... try changing this to --patterns=from.
If that fails, try adding --debug, although the output is usually not
very illuminating. Failing that too, have to dig into the perl. Let me
know and I can look if need be.